05/01/2026
Its almost Derby Day, which means its time again for the Squire’s Handicap. The forecast for Post Time Saturday in Louisville is cool and partly cloudy with a diminishing chance of rain. In other words, a perfect race day. There could be some showers earlier on Saturday, but by race time the track should be fast. That favors the horses that run near the pace and makes it tricky for a deep closer or any horse coming from the far outside gates. Tricky, but not impossible. On to the predictions!
TO SHOW: Renegade. He is the favorite, sitting at 4-1 on the morning line, coming out of Post #1. He’s arguably the most talented horse in the race and the kind of horse that would be a really good CPA if he was human. He’s got a steady temperament, not flashy, doesn’t have to run out front and generally just doesn’t make mistakes. Overall he’s the most disciplined, most boring favorite in recent memory. His strongest asset? Tactical speed that helps him break well out of the gate. Being in the #1 slot, he’s going to need all of that to avoid getting boxed in. Then there’s Irad Ortiz. The world’s best Jockey is a subjective title, but if Ortiz isn’t on your list, you’re not paying attention. He’s won multiple Eclipse Awards – give to the top US Jockey. He’s got strong hands in traffic and gets aggressive at exactly the right time. Both are critical in a big field with top talent, especially for a horse coming out on the rail. We’re picking him to Show partly because no horse has won from Post #1 in 40 years, no pre-race favorite has won since Justify in 2018, for all of Ortiz’s wins none are in the Derby and mostly just because it goes against our nature to pick the favorite to win, but this is way too good a Horse/Jockey combination to ignore.
TO PLACE: Commandment. He’s won four in a row, including the Florida Derby. He can handle chaos, which is a given in a 20 horse race like the Derby. His wins have been close, but hey, he won. He won enough, in fact, to be the Top Points Leader in the field. He’s not the absolute fastest horse in the race, but getting in the right position is often more important than pure speed when there’s 19 other horses trying to do the same thing. Commandment moved from the #8 to the #6 Post, so there will be no excuses from the gate. In fact, its just about perfect for a horse that runs like Commandment. Add Luis Saez, his rider, to the mix. Saez is one of the top riders in North America, has multiple Triple Crown wins and is aggressive, but very smart about when to turn a horse loose. Can Commandment win with a strong, fast close? Absolutely. It all comes down to position. He’s at 6-1 this morning and should be a prime candidate for a spot on your wheel. We see him as the second horse to cross the finish line, in a closing duel, half a length behind our pick.
FOR THE WIN: And without further ado, our winning pic, Further Ado. Further Ado is currently in the #17 Post. That’s WAY outside. His odds are sitting about 6-1 this morning, which is nothing short of phenomenal for a horse starting in that spot. Who was the last winner from the 17th gate? It’s a trick question, there’s never been one.
Why would we make a pick that flies in the face of conventional wisdom? Further Ado is fast and we LOVE watching him close. He won the Bluegrass Stakes by 11 lengths, going away. Adding to the fun, none other than John Velaquez will be in the saddle. Johnny V has won the Eclipse Award twice, has won half a dozen Triple Crown races (including THREE Kentucky Derby wins), a couple dozen Breeder’s Cup wins, is in the Hall of Fame and has more than 6,800 Career Wins adding up to more than Half a Billion Dollars in Career Earnings. Resume aside, Velaquez is known for making high percentage decisions. Ortiz (see Renegade) threads the needle, Velaquez doesn’t get into spots where he needs to. Are we concerned that this will be the first time he’s been on Further Ado? Let me put it this way: there have been three Derby winners that have paired a Horse and Jockey for the very first time. Velaquez accounts for two of those. Watch for him to keep Further Ado out of serious traffic so the horse can hit his full stride around a mile into the race, and then hang on!
If Renegade is the CPA and Commandment is the technician, Further Ado is the uber-talented teenager on his way to a party. He’ll be anxious in the paddock and dancing in the Post Parade, but John Velaquez will dial that energy in when the gate swings open. It’s a bold pick to choose a horse coming from so far outside, but how much fun will it be to watch Further Ado and Commandment duel it out at the end!
We're thinking Six Speed will set a blistering pace early before falling back around six furlongs. Bob Baffert has two horses in this year’s Derby, Litmus Test (30-1) and Potente (20-1 & half brother to both Renegade and Commandment), but this won’t be Bob’s year. Chief Wallabee (8-1) is talented enough, but lacks the magic. The Puma (10-1) is the closest we came to picking a long-shot bet and is our Superfecta pick for a 4th place finish. In the end, Further Ado, Commandment and Renegade make up our Trifecta and the finish might just live up to the tagline, The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. May fortune favor the bold.
