05/20/2020
To all of our wonderful patrons:
The Prince will NOT be opening during May due to COVID-19, and possibly not during June. We do not yet have a projected open date.
Whether justified or not, a lot of people still fear that there will be a second, larger wave caused by everyone suddenly going back out. I am one of those people. While I do not believe that all businesses should stay closed, and I welcome the gradual easing of restrictions, I also do not believe that things are suddenly safe.
The number of out-of-state license plates in town is increasing daily, as people from hotspots that are still locked down are increasingly travelling to places that are opening up – including here. Virtually nobody is wearing masks. Social distancing is gradually fading. An increasing number of people have decided that the danger has mostly passed – or that there was no real danger to begin with. And I really hope they’re right, and that I’m just being overcautious and pessimistic. I hope I’m being a paranoid fool.
The viral impact of social interaction on any particular day does not become apparent until several weeks later. The numbers we see today, which appear to be gradually declining, only depict the rate of spread several weeks ago, when most of the country had been locked down for a couple of weeks. The numbers we start seeing in June and July will depict the rate of spread occurring during May.
That said, we cannot keep everything locked down. The economic and psychological impact is staggering. But I believe that opening everything up TOO fast will make matters worse. There needs to be a delicate balance.
I do have a few requests.
Even if you feel that masks are completely unnecessary, and choose NOT to wear a mask while downtown or at the beach, please DO wear a mask at supermarkets, pharmacies, convenience stores, medical facilities and other places that seniors and higher risk people need to go. Please DO NOT deride and mock people who feel that wearing a mask is necessary, or those who still want to stay away from the public. Please respect those who don’t want to let their guard down.
On the other hand, even if you feel that everyone should be wearing masks, and that those who are not wearing masks are putting everyone in grave danger, please just keep your distance and DO NOT degrade them. Our country is based on freedom, and right now, one of those freedoms (at least in Florida) is choosing whether or not to wear a mask, and another freedom is choosing to avoid those who don’t.
Since there is little chance of a vaccine being developed within the next two years, and there are still no effective ways of treating this virus, there is only one remaining option – “herd immunity”. This can only be achieved once the majority of people (perhaps 70%) have been infected and recover (or die). The problem is that even if 99% of infected people recover, and 90% of them have only mild to moderate symptoms, over 2,000,000 Americans will die, and over 20,000,000 will suffer long term damage to their health. The other problem is that in order to achieve herd immunity in two years, we would need an average of over 300,000 infections per day in the USA. In order to achieve global herd immunity in two years, the world would need an average of over 7,000,000 infections per day.
There are some who believe that most people have already been infected and have recovered with little to no symptoms, and that we are already approaching herd immunity. I wish I could believe that. I hope that’s true. But I believe that only about 5% of the US population (about 16,000,000) have acquired some form of immunity, and that areas that have been less affected (such as St. Johns County) have less than 2% immunity.
While I am by no means an expert (and even the experts keep changing their minds), I do have my own opinion about what is going to happen. I hope I am completely wrong.
I do not believe that this will be seasonal like the flu. I believe that daily cases will gradually drop over the next two weeks, then level off for a couple of weeks, then start climbing somewhat during the second half of June, then climb dramatically during July, August and September, at rates much higher than we have yet seen. Various cities and states will reinstate partial or even full lockdowns in response to hotspots, causing increasing numbers of protests. Counties such as St. Johns, that have been extremely fortunate thus far, will almost certainly start to see large increases. I hate feeling this way, but I believe it’s going to get very ugly, and nothing would give me more relief than to find out I am wrong.
If you don’t believe me, please DON’T change your mind. I am not suggesting that everyone run and hide. Some of us SHOULD and WILL go out and potentially get exposed, and some of us SHOULD and WILL stay secluded to avoid exposure, and these two groups should try to respectfully avoid each other. Nature is going to run its course. Our best option right now is to try to prevent daily infections from spiking too high until we can develop effective anti-viral treatment regimens and vaccines, while also rebuilding our shattered economy.
And please, PLEASE remember:
Everything above is only my OPINION.
I am NOT an expert.
I MAY be a complete fool.
I sincerely HOPE I’m completely wrong.
I desperately WISH everything was safe.
I KNOW that we will get through this.
So please, be consumed neither by fear nor by overconfidence. Please remain vigilant and respectful.
And PLEASE do not reply to this letter with political garbage - I will delete it.
I hope the Prince can open much sooner than later! We miss all of you! WE WILL BE BACK!!
Sincerely,
Jake Firth
Owner
The Prince Of Wales Restaurant